1,2*Davidson Odafe Akpootu., 1Abba Babagana., 3Gazali Bello., 4Mudassir Na-Allah., 5Maryam Balarabe., 6Abdulsemiu Oluwatoyin Aina and 1Jabir Muhammad
1Department of Physics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria
2Department of Physics with Electronics, Federal University, Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria
3Sultan Abdurrahaman College of Health Technology Gwadabawa, Sokoto State, Nigeria
4Department of Physics, Abdullahi Fodiyo University of Science and Technology, Aliero
5Nigerian Postal Service No 10, Maputo Street Wuse Zone 3, Abuja
6Department of Physics and Materials Science, Kwara State University, Malete, Nigeria
*Corresponding author’s Email: davidson.odafe@udusok.edu.ng, doi.org/10.55639/607.02010072
ABSTRACT
This study analyzes the variability of solar radiation and its effect on photovoltaic (PV) energy generation over Nguru, Nigeria, using 31 years of data (1990–2020) of global solar radiation, sunshine duration, and temperature obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Empirical sunshine – and temperature – based models were applied and validated against the measured global solar radiation values using statistical metrics such as Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). Results show that the mean annual solar radiation was 23.89 MJm-2day-1, with maximum and minimum values of 25.15 MJm-2day-1 (2010) and 22.99 MJm-2day-1 (1991). The monthly mean PV energy output was 3129.27 kWh, peaking in October (3607.20 kWh) and reaching its lowest in August (2677.83 kWh). The Correlation Analysis (CA) revealed a good positive relationship between the measured global solar radiation and PV output with 0.75 (CA = 75%). Seasonal analysis indicated higher average solar radiation values in the rainy season (24.65 MJm-2day-1) compared to the dry season (22.81 MJm-2day-1), attributed to reduced dust and aerosols. Among the tested models, the Garcia (1994) temperature-based model (H3) performed best (R² 75.2%) with the lowest error metrics, and p-value of 0.0045 making it the most suitable for Nguru. The t-test (p-value) for all the adopted sunshine and temperature based models are significant at 95% ( ) confidence level, except for the Chen et al. (2004) temperature based model which has p-value of 0.1136. The findings confirm Nguru’s strong solar energy potential, providing valuable insights for optimizing renewable energy development in the Sahelian region of Nigeria.
Keywords:
Keywords:
Nguru,
Photovoltaic output,
Solar radiation,
Statistical metrics

